PODCAST:Checks and Balance from The Economist
TITLE:Checks and Balance picks: Are the pollsters ready for 2024?
DATE:2024-01-05 00:00:00
URL:
MODEL:text-davinci-002-render-sha
Here is a summary of the key points from the podcast "Checks and Balance" titled "Are the pollsters ready for 2024":
The podcast discusses the trustworthiness of polls in the upcoming 2024 election and the lessons learned from the 2016 and 2020 elections.
In the past two presidential cycles, polls underestimated support for Donald Trump, and he is likely to be the Republican nominee again.
Pollsters have struggled to capture the support of Trump's voters who are less likely to participate in pre-election surveys but turn out to vote.
Pollsters use various methods to adjust their samples, including selecting a more representative sample and giving more weight to underrepresented groups.
In 2016, state-level polls failed to accurately predict the election outcome due to missed respondents with lower education levels.
Pollsters improved their methods in the 2018 midterms but faced another meltdown in 2020 with the largest miss in 40 years.
It's challenging to identify the exact reasons for poll errors, but distrust in institutions like the federal government and the media may have played a role.
Changes in technology have also impacted polling, with online polls becoming more prevalent but raising concerns about representativeness.
Pollsters are using a combination of survey methods, including online, text, telephone, and postal surveys, to obtain a fuller picture of the electorate.
Voter rolls and databases are increasingly used to identify respondents who may be averse to speaking to pollsters.
While the 2022 midterms showed improved polling accuracy, it remains uncertain whether the same can be achieved in a general election involving Mr. Trump.
Pollsters and experts advise caution when interpreting polls, suggesting that polling averages are more reliable than individual polls.
Focus on swing states that determine the Electoral College outcome, as the election is likely to be close.
Polls showing a large lead for either candidate are likely outliers, so a balanced approach is recommended when analyzing polling data.
