PODCAST:Odd Lots
TITLE:Big Take DC: Economists May Be Using Bad Data to Make Big Decisions
DATE:2024-01-30 00:00:00
URL:
MODEL:gpt-4-gizmo
The "Big Take DC" podcast episode titled "Big Take DC Economists May Be Using Bad Data to Make Big Decisions," hosted by Celia Mosin, focuses on the critical issue of the reliability of economic data used by policymakers, particularly the Federal Reserve, in making significant decisions. The episode features economist Claudia Somme, who raises concerns about the quality of labor market data, specifically the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS), which has been a key factor in the Federal Reserve's decision-making process. Somme argues that changes in how employers list jobs, especially post-pandemic, may inflate the number of open positions, potentially leading to misinterpretations of the labor market's health.
The episode delves into the broader problem of declining survey response rates, a trend exacerbated by the pandemic, which affects the reliability of various government-collected data. This decline in survey participation is attributed to growing distrust in government and concerns over privacy. The Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau acknowledge this issue and are working to address it. The episode highlights the importance of accurate and reliable data for policymakers, especially in an election year when economic issues are a primary concern for voters.
Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway from Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast contribute to the discussion, emphasizing the disparity between "hard" data (objective measures such as sales) and "soft" data (subjective measures such as business confidence). They note how perceptions of the economy can differ significantly from individuals' experiences, potentially influenced by political partisanship and media narratives.
The podcast concludes with a call for action to rebuild trust between the government and the public to improve survey response rates and the quality of economic data. It underscores the urgency of addressing these data reliability issues before they worsen, affecting the ability of policymakers to make informed decisions.
