PODCAST:Odd Lots
TITLE:Lots More with Claudia Sahm
DATE:2024-01-30 00:00:00
URL:
MODEL:gpt-4-gizmo
The "Odd Lots" podcast episode titled "Lots More with Claudia Sahm" features a conversation with Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve economist and current consultant at Sahm Consulting. The discussion, hosted by Tracy Alloway and Joe Weisenthal, delves into the intricacies of economic indicators and the reliability of data used for policy-making, particularly in the context of the current economic cycle. Sahm shares insights on the Sahm Rule, a recession indicator she developed, which has historically been accurate since the 1970s. The rule assesses the health of the labor market by comparing the current unemployment rate to its lowest point in the previous 12 months, looking for a significant rise that signals a recession.
Sahm addresses the challenges of relying on certain labor market data, like job openings, which may be inflated due to changes in employer behaviors, especially post-pandemic. The episode also covers the decline in survey response rates, a trend exacerbated by the pandemic, affecting the reliability of various government-collected data. Sahm emphasizes the need to understand the distribution within economic indices, as aggregate figures may not fully capture the nuanced experiences of different groups within the economy.
The conversation touches on the importance of getting to know data points deeply, the influence of the Federal Reserve's decisions on economic narratives, and the impact of policy responses on recession dynamics. Sahm also discusses the significance of considering the distribution of wealth and income in economic analyses and the need for economics to become more diverse. The episode concludes with Sahm sharing her experiences with online harassment and her passion for promoting diversity in the field of economics.
